Monday’s modest losses on Wall Street which coincided with lower Treasury yields derailed the dollar against the yen, preventing USD/JPY from challenging 113.00 and closing lower for a second straight day. The dollar traded as low as 111.50 overnight as month-end yen repatriation surfaced. As soon as the dollar breached 111.50, dip-buying reappeared and ran the dollar as high as the 100-day moving average at 112.45 during the European and early North American session. The pair drifted lower before the U.S. close, ending the day 0.64% lower at 112.09.
The euro was under pressure from technical resistance at 1.0663, exacerbated by the revised economic forecasts from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. The OECD raised its GDP forecast for the U.S. in 2016 to 1.5% from 1.4% and to 2.3% from 2.1% for 2017, with 2017 GDP significantly higher than the revised forecast for the euro-zone. EUR/USD traded as low as 1.056 but closed slightly better at 1.0604, leaving the euro fractionally lower.
The Canadian dollar put in the best performance Monday, staging an impressive rally in concert with a rebound in oil. Oil futures turned positive mid-morning on encouraging remarks about a deal to cut production from the Iraqi oil minister, boosting the Canadian dollar by a penny to 1.3400, and breaking a four-day losing streak for the loonie. USD/CAD last traded at 1.3421, a loss of 0.60% for the greenback.
Sterling was also undermined by the OECD forecast as the organization pegged UK growth in 2018 at 1%, slower than Germany (1.7%) and France (1.6%), and warned of the shocks to the UK economy from the decision to leave the European Union. The reaction snapped a three-day winning streak for cable, and chased it down from 1.2531 during the Asian session to below 1.2400. Cable last traded at 1.2407, a loss of 0.45% from Friday’s close.
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